The rollout of headline speakers for the Republican convention offers the first bona-fide signals from the Romney campaign over who's on the short-short list to be his running mate.
It's probably safe to say that the seven major speakers announced overnight will not be Romney's vice presidential pick. Those speakers are: South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley, New Mexico Gov. Susana Martinez, Florida Gov. Rick Scott, former Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice, Arizona Sen. John McCain, former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee and Ohio Gov. John Kasich.
Now, speculation can focus on who's conspicuously absent from that list as the Republican presidential candidate prepares to unveil his nominee likely before the Tampa convention, to be held Aug. 27-30.
Those not on the list, and presumably in the running for running mate, include: Florida Sen. Marco Rubio, Wisconsin Rep. Paul Ryan, former Minnesota Gov. Tim Pawlenty, Ohio Sen. Rob Portman, New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie, New Hampshire Sen. Kelly Ayotte, Virginia Gov. Bob McDonnell, former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush and Louisiana Gov. Bobby Jindal.
The Republicans have not yet announced their convention keynote speaker, which could easily come from that list as well.
But the Romney campaign has been assiduously building anticipation for its VP rollout, even releasing a mobile phone app last week that promises to alert subscribers to his selection "before the press."
Of the seven convention speakers announced overnight, Rice probably had the most VP buzz surrounding her -- though she had said she wasn't interested.
The speaker list, though, does more than offer clues as to who's left in the VP running. They signal where Romney is looking to make progress as voters start to pay attention to the fall campaign.
The all-important female vote clearly is a priority -- evidenced by the choices of Haley, Martinez and Rice. Polls through the spring showed President Obama outpacing Romney among female voters, although strategists from both parties say that gender gap is narrowing. A strong play for female voters at the convention should be expected.
Haley, who backed Romney in her state's first-in-the-South primary, is the youngest sitting governor in the country and her husband will deploy to Afghanistan next year. So she will probably have a strong message for military families, as well as for younger voters.
Martinez, who made history in her state and nationally when she was elected, could appeal to Hispanic women, a sizable demographic that broke for Obama four years ago. She can also address voters who feel securing the nation's Southern border is a top concern.
Rice, an academic who was President George W. Bush's national security adviser and later secretary of state, could appeal to working women and those who put the United States' security as a top concern.
Some suggested she would be an excellent choice for Romney's running mate, but conservatives in the party led a revolt, citing her support for abortion rights.
Romney, with limited foreign policy credentials, needs leading foreign policy figures like Rice to vouch for him. Another prominent voice on foreign policy, McCain, will speak up for Romney.
The Senate veteran, who was a prisoner of war during Vietnam, remains among his party's most visible figures. His dislike for Romney has apparently faded since their primary fight four years ago.
"They are some of our party's brightest stars, who have governed and led effectively and admirably in their respective roles," Republican National Committee Chairman Reince Priebus said. "These speakers -- and those that will be announced later -- will help make it a truly memorable and momentous event."
Among Tea Party supporters, Romney will get a boost from Kasich. His home state of Ohio is a linchpin of Romney's strategy and no Republican has won the White House without carrying the perennial Midwestern battleground. No Democrat has won without winning Ohio since John F. Kennedy won the presidency in 1960.
Florida is another key state for both campaigns' path to the White House. Florida's Gov. Scott will address the convention, customary when the incumbent governor's party hosts the convention.
Democrats have rolled out their own convention schedule in recent weeks. Marking a first for Hispanics, the Democrats chose the mayor of San Antonio to deliver the keynote address in Charlotte, N.C.
San Antonio Mayor Julian Castro will deliver the high-profile, prime-time address on the convention's opening night, Sept. 4. First lady Michelle Obama will also address convention delegates that night.
Democrats also announced that former President Bill Clinton and Elizabeth Warren, the party's popular Senate candidate in Massachusetts, will have prime speaking roles at the convention on Sept. 5.
It just don't matter! Actually....palin or bachmann wouldn't matter one way or the other either. Biden is a dimwit! They are ALL part of the system.
When the INSANE are running the ASYLUM In individuals, insanity is rare; but in groups, parties, nations and epochs, it is the rule. -- Friedrich Nietzsche
“How fortunate for those in power that people never think.” Adolph Hitler
It just don't matter! Actually....palin or bachmann wouldn't matter one way or the other either. Biden is a dimwit! They are ALL part of the system.
I'm hoping for Palin! But even The Mitt isn't that dumb.
The modern conservative is engaged in one of man's oldest exercises in moral philosophy; that is, the search for a superior moral justification for selfishness. John Kenneth Galbraith
I'm hoping for Palin! But even The Mitt isn't that dumb.
Don't bet on it! He's not the sharpest tool in the shed! None of the candidates are. They are nothing more than the best of the bottom of the barrel!
When the INSANE are running the ASYLUM In individuals, insanity is rare; but in groups, parties, nations and epochs, it is the rule. -- Friedrich Nietzsche
“How fortunate for those in power that people never think.” Adolph Hitler
The modern conservative is engaged in one of man's oldest exercises in moral philosophy; that is, the search for a superior moral justification for selfishness. John Kenneth Galbraith
There can be only one. Only one person as his running mate will guarantee a victory. The rest are a coin toss at best. Choosing Ron Paul would zoom Romney over the top in every poll.
Romney's VP choice should either draw Conservative Teabaggers, or draw from moderate Republicans or even attempt to draw Democrats. A Ron Paul VP would draw the same 11% of his supporters but not Conservatives, moderates or Democrats.
The modern conservative is engaged in one of man's oldest exercises in moral philosophy; that is, the search for a superior moral justification for selfishness. John Kenneth Galbraith
Romney's VP choice should either draw Conservative Teabaggers, or draw from moderate Republicans or even attempt to draw Democrats. A Ron Paul VP would draw the same 11% of his supporters but not Conservatives, moderates or Democrats.
11 percent more would put him ahead in every poll.
Take note, veep watchers: Earlier today, a charter plane took off in Boston, stopped in Chicago, then flew to the tiny airport in Janesville, Wis. Janesville, of course, is the hometown of Representative Paul Ryan, a top vice-presidential contender. According to a source on the ground, the plane is still in Wisconsin.
Tomorrow morning, Mitt Romney will visit the USS Wisconsin in Norfolk, Va. For what it’s worth, Ryan is scheduled to be on vacation in Colorado.
Ron Paul's Route To Convention Chaos: The Vice Presidential Nomination
06/21/2012 8:36 am
WASHINGTON -- This may be the Ron Paul gambit we've been waiting for.
An obscure rule change made four years ago by the Republican Party has opened the door for Paul forces to cause a major headache for Mitt Romney when he tries to nominate his choice for vice president at the party convention in August.
The Republican National Committee could change Rule 40 in the week leading up to the convention, but that would risk the appearance of jamming Romney's nominee through, and likely cause a subsequent backlash.
Republican officials are still waking up to the fact that Paul loyalists -- who control the majority of delegates in Maine, Minnesota and Iowa, and have sizable contingents in a number of other states -- could very likely enter Paul's name into nomination for vice president. This would force a roll call vote where each delegate of each state is polled on the floor of the convention.
Such a move would transform a symbolic procedure that has taken mere minutes in the past several conventions into a chaotic and time-consuming spectacle that could eat up the better portion of a day.
Not only would such a floor fight step all over the message of party unity and strength that the Romney campaign hopes to drive through the convention, it would also open the door for alternatives to Romney's choice to gain momentum and further drive the process off the rails.
For example, if Romney chose Sen. Rob Portman (R-Ohio) as his vice presidential pick, but the Paul forces leveraged their impressive foothold in several states to nominate Paul from the floor, then someone like Sen. Marco Rubio (R-Fla) could emerge as the preferred pick for many delegates as the convention goes into a roll call vote. And Rubio's name could be entered into nomination, in addition to Paul's, if a plurality of five states voted to nominate him.
Where things would go from there is anybody's guess.
It is the word "plurality" that is key.
On January 17, 2008, eight months before the GOP convention in Minneapolis-St. Paul, the RNC's rules committee changed the process for nominating the presidential nominee or vice presidential nominee, so that instead of requiring a majority of delegates from five states, a candidate needed only a plurality of delegates from five states.
The alteration came during a primary where Sen. John McCain (R-Ariz.) was competing with Romney, former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee, former New York City Mayor Rudy Giuliani, former Sen. Fred Thompson (R-Tenn.) and Rep. Paul (R-Texas).
Morton Blackwell, a Republican committee man from Virginia and a veteran of the conservative movement, spearheaded the change during the January 2008 meeting, arguing that if multiple presidential candidates split delegates from a large number of states, then it was possible that no candidate would be able to muster a majority from five states, and the party would be prevented from having a nominee.
Blackwell originally proposed that the number of states be reduced from five to one, according to a source who was at the January meeting but revealed its details on condition of anonymity. But then he altered his amendment, so that it retained the five-state threshold but changed the requirement for each state's support from majority to plurality.
The impact of the rule change on vice presidential nominations was not discussed. The change took effect at the 2008 convention, but it was so overlooked at the time that when McCain was nominated, the chair of the convention used the language referring to his having the support of a majority of five states, instead of a plurality.
Blackwell could not be reached on Wednesday. A secretary at The Leadership Institute, the conservative group he founded in 1979, said he was on vacation all week.
Former New Jersey committeeman David Norcross, who chaired the January 2008 meeting where the rule was originally changed, told The Huffington Post that he did not know why they had changed the rule.
"No question it lowers the bar" for those who want to undermine the choice of the presidential nominee, Norcross said. "I cannot for the life of me figure out why we would lower the bar, why we would want to lower the bar."
Arizona committeeman Bruce Ash, who is currently the chair of the RNC rules committee, also said he was not aware of the change to Rule 40.
"I don't know that this is a concern that has jumped up on to anybody's radar screen," Ash said. "I suppose under the right set of circumstances, there might be some sort of potential competing name. I doubt it."
But there are some in the party who have recently become aware of the Rule 40 situation, and are trying to alert others to its potential for disruption.
Paul supporters have waged an intense and often contentious battle at the state level to win as many delegate spots to the national convention as possible. This has often meant fighting inch-by-inch through every step of the arcane and often confusing processes that each state uses to determine who represents it at the national convention. HuffPost has written extensively, for example, about how this works in Iowa, though each state has its own unique methodology.
A Paul adviser did not respond to a request for comment, but the speculation has been that Paul wants to use his convention strength to gain a prime-time speaking slot or to force changes in the Republican platform, and his campaign has in fact articulated the issues it wants to see prioritized.
Yet, the legitimate prospect of a floor fight has not yet surfaced until now.
And while the change to Rule 40 four years ago from a majority requirement to a plurality requirement also applies to the presidential nomination, it is more relevant to the vice presidential pick. That's because delegates who are bound by state party rules to vote for Romney -- a restriction some are disputing -- are not bound at all on the question of who should be the vice presidential nominee.
There are states, such as Nevada, for example, where Paul supporters have managed to win 22 of 28 delegate spots. Those delegates are bound by state rules to cast their vote on the presidential nominee question for Romney. However, those restrictions don't apply to the vice presidential nominee. Nevada's delegates are therefore free to support whoever they want for vice president.
Thus, in the context of the vice presidential nomination, you can add Nevada to the list of states -- in addition to Minnesota, Iowa and Maine -- where Paul forces control majorities of delegates and would likely support placing Paul's name into nomination for vice president.
This is before you even get to the question of which states might have a plurality of delegates who want to support Paul --or for that matter his son, Sen. Rand Paul (R-Ky.) -- for vice president.
Paul said in a recent statement that all together, he estimates to have about 200 delegates headed to Tampa that are bound to him, with another 300 or so delegates supporting him but bound to Romney. But again, those 300 delegates are bound to Romney only on the question of the presidential nominee, and not on the question who should be the party's vice presidential nominee.
A Romney campaign adviser did not immediately respond to a request for comment, and neither did an RNC spokesman.
The Governor of Maine, Paul LePage has threatened to boycott the RNC if they attempt to block the Maine Delegates from being seated at the convention.
"In the beginning of a change, the Patriot is a scarce man, brave, hated and scorned. When his cause succeeds, however, the timid join him, for then it costs nothing to be a Patriot."
George Amedore & Christian Klueg for NYS Senate 2016 Pete Vroman for State Assembly 2016[/size][/color]
"For this is what America is all about. It is the uncrossed desert and the unclimbed ridge. It is the star that is not reached and the harvest that is sleeping in the unplowed ground." Lyndon Baines Johnson
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