The Myth of the Independent Voter

The data dispels the idea that independent voters are the largest segment of the American electorate and will decide the 2012 election.

Research by political scientists on the American electorate has consistently found that the large majority of self-identified independents are 'closet partisans' who think and vote much like other partisans. Independent Democrats and independent Republicans have little in common.
Moreover, independents with no party preference have a lower rate of turnout than those who lean toward a party and typically make up less than 10% of the electorate.
Finally, independents don't necessarily determine the outcomes of presidential elections; in fact, in all three closely contested presidential elections since 1972, the candidate backed by most independent voters lost.
(Alan Abramowitz)