To wrong and late---my groceries and gas and everything else are pressure enough.....but, I live in America and I wont be starving.....some bathtub gin would always help when you cant afford to go to the movies...or buy a steak......it's all relative---just make it fun,live,love and laugh often....

dreams change all the time.....goals aren't always met but now is now.....I have seen tomorrow every day........

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Thanks to president, recession inevitable
BY BONNIE ERBE Scripps Howard News Service

    Recession, like menopause, is a retrospective diagnosis. You don’t know you’re in one until you’ve been in it for at least two quarters (referring to a recession) or a year (for menopause). The question for me is not: Are we hitting a recession in 2008? It is: What has made the economy so buoyant that we didn’t submerge into a recession several years ago?
    Wall Street giant and billion-dollar bank Merrill Lynch announced last week that the United States had entered a recession for the first time in 16 years. It was a controversial call denied by a chorus of economists who do not think we’re there yet. But the announcement comes from the bank’s chief American economist, David Rosenberg — widely respected on Wall Street.
    The largest factor driving this country’s economy into recession has been the Bush administration’s profligate spending. Please read the following quote from the conservative/libertarian think tank Cato Institute’s Web site:
    “George Bush is mired in a fi scal policy crisis worse than anyone could have envisioned when he entered the Oval Office. . . . This crisis is the resurgence of record federal deficits. . . . The deterioration of America’s fiscal health cannot be blamed on . . . pro-spending coalitions in the Democrat-controlled Congress — although certainly some of the blame lies there. It is almost exclusively the creation of the Bush administration itself.”
NOTHING BUT DEFICITS
    Sound familiar? The article, which I edited heavily (taking out references that would have dated it immediately, such as the use of the term “Reaganomics”), is about George H.W. Bush, not George W. But it might as well have been about the son.
    Forget about the $127 billion surplus that President Bill Clinton left the nation after he moved out of the White House or the fact that Clinton paid down hundreds of billions of dollars in federal debt. President George W. Bush has produced nothing but deficits since he’s been in office. Last year’s, at $163 billion, was the lowest in five years. But it probably would not have been if his trillion-dollar war in Iraq hadn’t been paid for “off budget.” That little budgetary trick by the administration means that cost isn’t tallied in the deficit and debt figures.
    Then, of course, there’s Bush’s multitrillion-dollar tax cut.
    Here’s a lesson Bush never learned and one that probably could have kept this country out of recession: You can’t fight an expensive war AND cut taxes simultaneously without sending the U.S. economy into the tank.
    That is just what Bush has done.
    There are other contributing factors, of course. The housing bust has hurt this consumer-driven economy mightily. Americans felt richer and borrowed heavily against home equity at the height of the boom. These factors kept corporate profits and the economy growing.
    But the bust that has now followed was highly predictable. Real estate always runs in cycles. The last real-estate boom lasted an incredibly long five years. The president should not have been piling up irresponsible debt, knowing the crash would come at some point.
    Then there is oil. Prices have been high since Hurricane Katrina, more than two years ago. When you consider that early in Bush’s first term oil was selling for about $25 per barrel, and we’re now paying about four times that much, it’s incredible that fact alone didn’t drive us into recession territory much sooner.
ARTIFICIAL PUMP-UP
    What has kept our economy growing these past few years? My theory is: immigration. When millions of people flood into this country with few possessions, buy homes and fill them with consumer goods, of course our consumer economy is pumped. But that artificial pump-up won’t last forever. Unfortunately, the overdevelopment they prompt and the environmental degradation they create will.
    What’s the solution? It won’t be resolved with this guy in the White House. Cut defense spending. Use a pay-go system for all future domestic spending programs and tax cuts. Get the deficit down and bring the surplus back. And while we’re at it, pay down the national debt.

Bonnie should have done her homework and she would have discovered that the 127 billion in surplus she talks about was on paper. You can't stimulate the economy without tax cuts to start the ball rolling. As far as the housing problem goes people were just plain living way beyond their means. The oil problem is also driven by the tree huggers not allowing any oil refineries to be built for the last 25 years so it's a supply and demand issue. We use more gas and oil than we can produce so the price goes up. The writer failed to mention that we could throw out all the illegal immigrants and save a huge amount of money by not having to pay for their welfare, medicaid, food stamps, unemployment insurance, and social security payments.

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Experts: Recession odds now at 50-50
Fed under pressure to drop rates again
BY JEANNINE AVERSA The Associated Press

    WASHINGTON — The unemployment rate leaps to a two-year high, record numbers of people are forced from their homes and Wall Street nose-dives again. Such is the fallout from a housing meltdown that threatens to slingshot the country into a recession.
    The big economic question these days is whether the weakening economy will survive the strains or collapse under them.
    The odds have grown that the economy will slip into a recession. At the beginning of last year, many economists put that chance at less than 1-in-3; now an increasing number says it has climbed to around 50-50. Goldman Sachs, the biggest investment bank on Wall Street, even thinks a recession is inevitable this year.
    Hopeful it can be avoided, President Bush and the Democrat-controlled Congress are exploring economic rescue measures, including possible tax rebates. Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke pledged to lower interest rates as needed.
    The idea is to induce people to boost spending, especially on bigticket items such as homes and cars, and revitalize economic activity.
    “The recession gorilla is there. The question is can the Federal Reserve do enough to avert a recession?” asked Brian Bethune, economist at Global Insight. “We think the odds are close to 50 percent that there will be a recession. It is high — no question about it.”
    Much hope rides on the Fed. By dropping rates, it can act quickly — faster than Congress or the White House could agree on and deliver an economic boost.
    “The Federal Reserve is not currently forecasting a recession,” Bernanke said last week. “We are forecasting slow growth.”
    Bernanke signaled that a rate cut would come this month. Many economists believe a key rate, now at 4.25 percent, could fall by as much as one-half of a percentage point. Such a cut would lower the rates that are charged to millions of consumers and businesses for many different types of loans.
    Analysts predict the Fed will keep doing that in the months ahead as part of a campaign that started in September, when the central bank cut rates for the fi rst time in four years.
    Trying to put the fragile economy back on firm footing is the biggest challenge for Bernanke since taking over the Fed nearly two years ago. His job requires a deft reading of the economy’s vital signs and keen insights into what makes people and businesses tick. It is their behavior that shapes the economy. And it is in turbulent times that the Fed chief needs to bolster public and investor confidence.
    Still, Wall Street is on edge. The Dow Jones industrials plunged nearly 250 points on Friday. Also, consumer confidence tumbled in early January.
    Bill Cheney, chief economist at John Hancock Financial Services, puts the odds of a recession as high as 40 percent. “There are a lot of headwinds and the economy probably has enough momentum to get through, but when things get rough, there are a lot of ways things could go wrong,” Cheney said.

I like the wording--consumer confidence down......priorities have just changed.....and with credit so prolific we have lost sight of priorities....will I starve?? NOPE.....

I remember going through a recession in the 70's. Gas prices where high. You could only get gas on the odd/even days. I remember grocery prices also increasing. If I recall correctly, the interest rate for some home purchases were in the double digits. And yet we all survived. And we will again.

Recession? Been there, done that!

Back in the 70's while we were having gas rationed out to us there were barges at the Port of Albany and the Port of Rensselaer full of gas that wouldn't even unload their cargo of gas. I've talked to a few people who lived near gas stations that were out of business being awoken at night by the sound of an idling diesel truck unloading gas into the empty tanks of the closed gas stations. That shortage was created because the gas companies couldn't raise the price of their product so we had to endure the gas shortage and they got us used to paying a higher price for the gas and we were glad to pay just to get gas.

Shadow, you are correct about the gas.

I also remember that we were also asked back then to turn our thermostats down. Our heating bills were rising like they are also doing today. I remember dressing my kids in layer upon layer of clothes in the winter while I was a good consumer and kept my heat lowered. There was also plenty of environmentalist around back then too. It's like de déjà vu all over again.

Failure to learn from our mistakes of the past will result in making the same mistakes again in the future.

Quoted from Shadow

Failure to learn from our mistakes of the past will result in making the same mistakes again in the future.

So what was/were the mistake(s)???? Not listening to the environmentalists? Listening to the corporate hoards of oil companies? Allowing our government to 'scare' us into something that maybe never really existed? Could it have been a pre-9/11 test? Who were our enemies then? Was it our fault that cost went up? Was there a war? Was there abuse of credit? Basic stretch of supply and demand? Who starved to death? etc etc........

The mistake was believing the government and oil companies when they said that there was an oil shortage so the oil companies could charge more for a gallon of gas and increase their profit margin. There really was no shortage of oil back in the 70's. The environmentalists have to assume responsibility for our lack of oil refineries as they block them every time one was attempted to be built. We are at the mercy of supply and demand when it comes to gas prices and we were the ones who put us in that position. China and India need the oil as much as we do and if we want to get our fair share we're going to have to pay for it.

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Capital Region banks brace for more bad loans
Wednesday, January 16, 2008
By James Schlett (Contact)
Gazette Reporter

GLENVILLE — Banks operating in the Capital Region are increasing the money they set aside for bad loans — hinting further at difficulties consumers are facing to make ends meet amid a relentless housing slump and high energy prices.
Area banks are only now beginning to release their fourth quarter results for 2007, but the higher provisions for loan losses disclosed so far are just the tip of the iceberg, banking experts said.
TrustCo Bank Corp in Glenville reported Tuesday that it recorded a loan loss provision of $2.5 million during the fourth quarter, up from zero dollars a year earlier. That hike marked the first time since 2004 the TrustCo Bank parent’s provision for loan losses — the sum banks need to absorb expected loan losses — stood above zero dollars, said bank Vice President and Treasurer Kevin Timmons.
Also Tuesday, NBT Bancorp in Norwich reported that its preliminary provision for loan losses almost quadrupled during the fourth quarter to $13.4 million from $3.5 million a year earlier.
M&T Bank Corp. in Buffalo last week reported an over-300 percent increase in its fourth quarter provision for credit losses to $101 million, compared to $28 million a year earlier.
The M&T Bank parent during the third quarter set aside $53 million for net chargeoffs. M&T’s loan loss problems stem partly from a 2007 spike in defaults among alternative residential loans.
“It is nothing to be alarmed about. It’s a reflection of what is going on in the banking industry, and the banking industry is faced with difficulties as we are,” said Hugh Johnson Hugh Johnson, chairman and chief investment officer of Johnson Illington Advisors, an Albany money management firm.
Compared to Citigroup in New York, which has been squirming since the onset of the subprime mortgage meltdown last summer, most upstate banks are not facing huge increases in bad loans. While local banks’ growing reserves for bad loans should not raise alarm, the trend does not bode well for consumer spending and the strength of the economy.
“With every new number, the case for a recession is becoming stronger,” said Johnson.
A series of statistics indicating weaker consumer spending — the thrust of the nation’s economy — were released Tuesday.
In New York, the National Retail Federation said holiday season spending nationwide in November and December rose by 3 percent to $469.9 billion — falling short of the trade organization’s 4 percent increase forecast. 2007 marked the worst holiday season retailers have seen since 2002, when sales rose by 1.3 percent.
The NRF also predicted retail industry sales — excluding automobiles, gasoline and restaurants — will rise 3.5 percent in 2008, compared with 3.7 percent in 2007, when it reached $2.4 trillion.
Also Tuesday, the Conference Board’s measure of chief executive confidence fell five points to 39. A reading of more than 50 points reflects more positive responses than negative. The last time the New York nonprofit business research organization recorded a reading below 40 was in 2000, when it fell to 31.
In Glenville, Timmons said the bank’s loan loss provision hike was spurred by a larger loan portfolio and a riskier banking environment. TrustCo reported a 12.8 percent drop in net income to $39.5 million for 2007, compared to $45.3 million in 2006.
“Our loan quality remains pretty strong,” he said.
Bank President and Chief Executive Officer Robert J. McCormick stressed his institution has not been embroiled in the subprime mess. By the end of 2007, nonperforming loans, which traditionally include loans 90 days in default, accounted for just 0.66 percent of TrustCo’s $1.9 billion in total loans.
Over the year, total loans grew by 10 percent, spurred by TrustCo’s branch expansion downstate and in Florida. During the fourth quarter, the bank opened offices in Schaghticoke and Apopka, Fla., bringing its branch total to 107.
By the close of trading Tuesday, TrustCo’s stock price slid 1.1 percent to $9.16 per share. NBT’s stock fell 3.1 percent to $19.89 per share.
Timmons said loans issued to borrowers in Florida, which is one of the states hit hardest by the housing slump, did not exclusively prompt the loan loss provision increase.
“Being conservative is a reasonable course of action when the environment is the way it is right now,” he said.

The field is leveling---all by itself,,,,the government just makes a little move to look like they can do something, but the fact it that we buy or dont buy....

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Survey: Region’s CEOs anticipate harder year ahead
Almost half in Siena poll expect recession in 2008
BY JAMES SCHLETT Gazette Reporter
Reach Gazette reporter James Schlett at 395-3040 or jschlett@dailygazette.net

    A majority of upstate chief executives are hunkering down, forgetting about expanding into new markets and focusing on their core businesses as they brace for a turbulent year, according to a Siena Research Institute survey released Thursday.
    At a time when a multiplicity of economic stresses are sapping consumer spending and the dollar, the SRI survey provides the first snapshot of confidence among CEOs in four upstate metropolitan areas.
    Almost half of the CEOs surveyed said they worry a recession might take hold this year, though taxation remains their biggest concern. The business outlook held by Albany executives was slightly brighter than those in Buffalo, Rochester and Syracuse.
    The report shows that 41 percent of upstate business leaders expect economic conditions in New York to get a little worse in 2008 and 8 percent expect it to get considerably worse. Thirty-two percent said the predict the state’s economic condition will be unchanged.
    Despite upstate’s malaise, few CEOs are looking at workforce reductions or price increases. However, 31 percent of survey respondents said their profit enhancement strategies include cost reductions.
    “Certainly they are risk-adverse, and they have a number of things to be concerned about,” SRI Director Donald Levy said of CEOs.
    Fifty-six percent of CEOs statewide said they plan to concentrate this year on growth in existing products and the expansion in existing markets. Only 16 percent foresee the acquisition of new businesses. Eleven percent plan to build new locations.
    “To a certain extent, they’re circling the wagons. They’re protecting what they have,” Levy said.
    Even First Niagara Bank, which sponsored the survey, is looking to broaden its reach in the region, where it has 53 branches. The Lockport-based bank recently launched an aggressive lending promotion intended to lure small business away from their regular banks, said First Niagara Eastern New York Regional President Thomas Amell.
    SRI’s first annual CEO confidence survey included responses from 403 executives at for-profit businesses with annual revenues between $5 million and $150 million. Almost a third of the survey respondents were from the Capital Region.
    The survey, which was unveiled at a First Niagara branch in Loudonville, takes SRI into new but not unfamiliar territory. Since 2001, the Siena College pollster has measured consumer confidence throughout the state. It has also surveyed New Yorkers for holiday spending outlooks and political issues.
    SRI put upstate CEOs’ overall confidence index at 77.7 — 22.3 points below the benchmark point of 100. Albany’s index was 81.7. At 87.8, Buffalo had upstate’s highest index.
    The 100 benchmark is based on a scale from zero to 200 that runs the gamut of negative to positive responses about the economy. The index of 100 represents a stable economic point where positive and negative responses are balanced.
    The Conference Board earlier this week released its CEO confidence survey. It showed moods among the nation’s business leaders have dropped to their lowest levels in seven years.
    The New York nonprofit business research organization said CEO confidence in the fourth quarter dropped to 39 — the first time the index slipped below 40 since 2000, when it was 31. A reading of 50 represents a positive economic outlook.
    The release of SRI’s CEO survey came on a day when the onset of a national recession appeared to be increasingly likely. To prevent the nation’s first recession since 2001, the Bush administration floated economic stimulus plans possibly consisting of short-term tax breaks.
    The Dow Jones industrial Average on Thursday tumbled 306 points on news of slower manufacturing and new home construction activity in December.
    Levy said he sees a “silver lining” in that 63 percent of CEOs said they plan to invest in fixed assets in 2008. Only 27 percent of executives had no plans for capital projects.
    “These people are here to stay,” said Levy.

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Retailers Sink Into the Doldrums
BY GARY MCWILLIAMS AND AMY MERRICK
Companies Featured in This Article: Talbots, Kohl's, Target, Best Buy, Home Depot, Wal-Mart Stores, Macy's, Sears Holdings, Wendy's International, Tiffany , Williams-Sonoma, Circuit City Stores, RadioShack, Rite Aid , Zale, Chico's FAS

The retail industry appears to be skidding toward its first big wreck in 17 years.

Chains are slamming the brakes on store openings, cutting back on inventory and girding for leaner times as consumer spending chills. The speed with which sales slowed during the holidays caught even cautious retailers off-guard, prompting a flurry of profit warnings.

And while data on December consumer spending won't be released until the end of the month, plummeting sales suggest consumers are snapping shut their pocketbooks.