JPMorgan’s Lee: Dow May Soar to 20,000 Within 4 Years
The Dow Jones Industrial Average has surged 6 percent so far this year, and Thomas Lee, chief U.S. equity strategist for JPMorgan Chase, says the party can keep going for a long time.
He predicts to CNBC that the Dow may hit 20,000 within four years, and the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index 2,400 to 2,500.
That would represent a 44 percent gain for the Dow and as much as a 67 percent increase for the S&P 500.
Lee is impressed with the market’s ability to hit five-year highs, despite the reluctant participation of individual investors.
"There are a lot of reasons investors are sort of fighting the tape," he says. "There are still a lot of memories of '08 [the financial crisis]. We still have a taint on owning stocks."
However, crucial statistics argue for a continuation of the stock rally, Lee says. First, S&P 500 earnings now total about $100 a share. But, “the [historical] cycle peak in earnings is closer to $150.”
In addition, the price-earnings ratio for the S&P 500 is now 12.5 to 13, compared with the mid-cycle norm of 17, he says.
Other stock experts forecast more gains too: David Bianco, chief U.S. equity strategist for Deutsche Bank, lifted his forecast for the S&P 500 Friday by 25 points to 1,600 for this year.
And
Dan Greenhaus, chief global strategist at BTIG Strategy, predicts 1,650, The Wall Street Journal reports.
The modern conservative is engaged in one of man's oldest exercises in moral philosophy; that is, the search for a superior moral justification for selfishness. John Kenneth Galbraith
because they TELL us the value and we moooooooove along.....
the value is what it's all about....
watch the dollar and see your purchase power pennies:unit........
the stock market has become a hollywood Oscar night with the politicians involved
Damn straight. My stocks are doing beautifully. Now I'm shuffling them around. I went big on Sturm Ruger in 2008 when all the Obama's gonna take our guns away nonsense started. Bought in at 4.53, sold last week at 52.25. Thank You NRA, for the 1000% profit! I kind of messed up though, because it was at 60 last week, and it went up again today.
Last week, I picked up on iRobot, (IRBT) which is a very large robotics supplier to the police, and military. I bought in at 18, and it's already at 23. I put a stop on it today at 20, so no matter what happens, I won't lose anything. I'm gonna sell it when it hits 39, and it will.
The blue-chip index hits its highest level since October 2007. The S&P 500 also reaches a 5-year high. Employers add 157,000 jobs in January;
Stocks took off on Friday, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average ($INDU +1.08%) closed above 14,000 for the first time since October 2007 as investors cheered a decent jobs report and improvements in U.S. manufacturing and consumer confidence.
The blue chips topped 14,000 shortly after 10 a.m. The index fell back below 14,000 several times during the day. But late buying pushed the Dow to close at 14,010, a 148-point gain. The Standard & Poor's 500 Index ($INX +1.01%) hit a five-year high of 1,513, up 15 points.
The Nasdaq Composite Index ($COMPX +1.18%) had gained 37 points to 3,179, its highest level in 12 years.
The modern conservative is engaged in one of man's oldest exercises in moral philosophy; that is, the search for a superior moral justification for selfishness. John Kenneth Galbraith
Economy Adds Another 157,000 Jobs; Rate Up to 7.9% Published: Friday, 1 Feb 2013 | 9:47 AM ET By: Jeff Cox
CNBC.com Staff Writer
The new year started off with an old story: Employment grew again in January but not at a pace able to lower the jobless rate.
Nonfarm payrolls rose 157,000 for the first month of 2013 while the unemployment rate edged higher to 7.9 percent, news unlikely to alter the Federal Reserve's monetary policy or instill co 8.5 Million Americans Left Labor Force In Obama's First Term
By Noel Sheppard | February 01, 2013 | 08:51 The Bureau of Labor Statistics released jobs numbers for January Friday showing that nonfarm payroll employment increased by 157,000 and the unemployment rate rose to 7.9 percent.
Lost in these headline numbers was another rise in the number of people not in the labor force.
This number now stands at a staggering 89 million, up from 80.5 million when President Obama took office.
This means that there are currently 8.5 million more Americans not in the labor force than just four years ago.
Forget all the other numbers.
This continued explosion of people not in the labor force should be tremendously concerning as it represents an obstacle for the government to ever balance the budget without drastically raising taxes on those still working
Economy Adds Another 157,000 Jobs; Rate Up to 7.9% Published: Friday, 1 Feb 2013 | 9:47 AM ET By: Jeff Cox CNBC.com Staff Writer The new year started off with an old story: Employment grew again in January but not at a pace able to lower the jobless rate. Nonfarm payrolls rose 157,000 for the first month of 2013 while the unemployment rate edged higher to 7.9 percent, news unlikely to alter the Federal Reserve's monetary policy or instill co 8.5 Million Americans Left Labor Force In Obama's First Term By Noel Sheppard | February 01, 2013 | 08:51 The Bureau of Labor Statistics released jobs numbers for January Friday showing that nonfarm payroll employment increased by 157,000 and the unemployment rate rose to 7.9 percent. Lost in these headline numbers was another rise in the number of people not in the labor force. This number now stands at a staggering 89 million, up from 80.5 million when President Obama took office. This means that there are currently 8.5 million more Americans not in the labor force than just four years ago. Forget all the other numbers. s continued explosion of people not in the labor force should be tremendously concerning as it represents an obstacle for the government to ever balance the budget without drastically raising taxes on those still working Read more: http://newsbusters.org/blogs/n.....t-term#ixzz2JhHwKCJm nfidence that the recovery is gaining steam.
Again Shadow... YOU may trust this website... YOU may think that it is unbiased and only reporting actual events... but I have my suspicions...
When their own logo comes out and screams "WE ARE RIGHT WING NUTS", why would you expect other than Right Wing Nut Bias???
The modern conservative is engaged in one of man's oldest exercises in moral philosophy; that is, the search for a superior moral justification for selfishness. John Kenneth Galbraith
The stock market is booming right now but it's a jobless recover as companies layoff workers and boost profits.
YUP! The sheeple are buyin' it!
The modern conservative is engaged in one of man's oldest exercises in moral philosophy; that is, the search for a superior moral justification for selfishness. John Kenneth Galbraith
~The stock market is booming right now but it's a jobless recover as companies layoff workers and boost profits.
~ 2.17 million jobs were created in 2012. This “is the best annual total since 2005, and tops seven of the eight years Bush/Cheney was in office.”
~ 74,000 government jobs were lost last year. This includes 9,000 layoffs last month, 2,000 of which were in education. Since February 2010, the public sector has lost 600,000 jobs.
~5.5 million lost jobs have been recovered. As Bloomberg News noted, “The economy has recovered 5.51 million of the 8.74 million jobs that were lost as a result of the last recession.”
In spite of obstructionism from the GOP, Obama is pulling the USA out of the Bush Economic Meltdown.
The modern conservative is engaged in one of man's oldest exercises in moral philosophy; that is, the search for a superior moral justification for selfishness. John Kenneth Galbraith
Fact Check: Job creation versus unemployment By Tom Foreman, CNN updated 12:34 PM EDT, Fri October 5, 2012 Debate: Jobs fact check (CNN) -- No issue has been hotter throughout the run-up to the election than jobs -- and both candidates took pains to tackle the issue during their first debate Wednesday at the University of Denver.
"Over the last 30 months, we've seen 5 million jobs in the private sector created," Democratic incumbent Barack Obama said.
In 2009, Obama's first full year in office, people in states across the country were losing their jobs at a startling clip. In Ohio, the unemployment rate was 10.6%.
But over the next few years, the nation saw slow increases in employment in the retail, education and health care sectors. Today, most states are gaining jobs. The key swing state of Ohio now has a 7.2% unemployment rate.
The Bureau of Labor Statistics confirms that a lot of jobs have been created under Obama's leadership -- 4.4 million by the bureau's latest count. What Obama did not say, however, was that the nation shed 4.3 million jobs during the early days of his term, and that the net gain since he took the oath of office in January 2009 is just 125,000 jobs. Complete coverage of CNN's Fact Checks http://www.cnn.com/2012/10/03/politics/fact-check-jobs-economy/index.html
Fact Check: Job creation versus unemployment By Tom Foreman, CNN updated 12:34 PM EDT, Fri October 5, 2012 Debate: Jobs fact check (CNN) -- No issue has been hotter throughout the run-up to the election than jobs -- and both candidates took pains to tackle the issue during their first debate Wednesday at the University of Denver.
"Over the last 30 months, we've seen 5 million jobs in the private sector created," Democratic incumbent Barack Obama said.
In 2009, Obama's first full year in office, people in states across the country were losing their jobs at a startling clip. In Ohio, the unemployment rate was 10.6%.
But over the next few years, the nation saw slow increases in employment in the retail, education and health care sectors. Today, most states are gaining jobs. The key swing state of Ohio now has a 7.2% unemployment rate.
The Bureau of Labor Statistics confirms that a lot of jobs have been created under Obama's leadership -- 4.4 million by the bureau's latest count. What Obama did not say, however, was that the nation shed 4.3 million jobs during the early days of his term, and that the net gain since he took the oath of office in January 2009 is just 125,000 jobs. Complete coverage of CNN's Fact Checks http://www.cnn.com/2012/10/03/politics/fact-check-jobs-economy/index.html
Fri October 5, 2012
The modern conservative is engaged in one of man's oldest exercises in moral philosophy; that is, the search for a superior moral justification for selfishness. John Kenneth Galbraith
Economy Adds Another 157,000 Jobs; Rate Up to 7.9% Text Size
Published: Friday, 1 Feb 2013 | 9:47 AM ET By: Jeff Cox CNBC.com Staff Writer
Susan Trigg | Photographer's Choice RF | Getty Images The new year started off with an old story: Employment grew again in January but not at a pace able to lower the jobless rate.
Nonfarm payrolls rose 157,000 for the first month of 2013 while the unemployment rate edged higher to 7.9 percent, news unlikely to alter the Federal Reserve's monetary policy or instill confidence that the recovery is gaining steam.
Economists were looking for 160,000 net new jobs created with the unemployment rate holding steady at 7.8 percent.
The ho-hum jobs numbers for January were accompanied by substantial revisions higher for previous months, according to the report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics.
Traders reacted positively to the report, providing a healthy gain at the market open.
Play Video January Private Sector Jobs Up 166,000 CNBC's Hampton Pearson breaks down the latest data on employment. And, discussing what it indicates about the health of the U.S. economy and its impact on Friday's markets, with Mark Zandi, Moody's Analytics; Austan Goolsbee, Booth School of Business professor; Jared Bernstein, Center on Budget and Policy Priorities; Kelly King, BB&T chairman & CEO; and CNBC's Steve Liesman and Rick Santelli. "The market certainly likes it," said Liz Ann Sonders, chief investment strategist at Charles Schwab. The revisions "may be the real bright spot of the report."
A report earlier this week indicated that third-quarter growth actually contracted 0.1 percent, but Friday's jobs numbers contradicted the gross domestic product read.
But November job creation rose from the originally reported 161,000 to 247,000, while December was pushed upward to 196,000 from 155,000.
"The gains we've received on the January jobs report are the start of positive readings for the foreseeable future," said Todd Schoenberger, managing partner at LandColt Capital. "The first quarter has historically delivered surprises to the upside anyway, so expect January revisions and February-March readings to be significantly positive."
Retail led the way in January with 33,000 new jobs, while construction rose 28,000 and health care added 23,000.
Transportation and warehousing shed 14,000 positions while hospitality positions such as bartenders and waiters, which led the way through much of 2012, was little changed.
The numbers come as Congress debates deficit-reduction measures and the looming possibility of deep spending cuts known as sequestration.
"Job growth in January was good, but growth overall remains too slow to provide work for all who want and need it," said Christine L. Owens, executive director of the National Employment Law Project.
"Unfortunately, Congress appears once again poised to make matters worse, with automatic budget cuts that will inflict harm on the economy—and America's working families," she added.
Indeed, there were some signs that persistent issues with the American jobs picture were clearing up, despite the fears of what Washington might do.
For the first time in nearly two years, the average duration of unemployment made a significant move lower.
That number fell to 35.3 weeks, its lowest since January 2011.
However, a separate unemployment measure that also takes into account those who have quit looking for jobs as well as those working part-time for economic reasons remained unchanged at 14.4 percent.
Though the report showed total net job gains, the actual number of Americans in the workforce was little changed, rising just 17,000. The labor force participation rate, considered a key metric in determining optimism among job seekers, was unchanged near 30-year lows at 63.6 percent.
Another key data point, the average work week, also was unchanged at 34.4 hours, while wages rose 4 cents an hour to $23,78, representing a 2.1 percent gain over the past year.
"When you look at January in and of itself you do not see the strength you would like to see at this point," said Steve Blitz, chief economist at ITG. "However, chances are January gets revised upward, you have to wait another month unfortunately. It's kind of an in-between month in that regard."
Though some recent economic reports, particularly in housing, show an economy on the mend, gains in jobs have been hard to come by.
Average job creation for 2012 was around 181,000, following BLS revisions, a number considered a shade above the benchmark for the unemployment rate to stabilize but not fall.
Most significantly, Federal Reserve monetary policy is now tied directly to the jobless rate. The U.S. central bank has said it will not alter its zero interest rate policy until the jobless rate falls to 6.5 percent and inflation eclipses 2.5 percent.
"There's going to be a lot of chatter about how and when the Fed pulls back on quantitative easing," Sonders said.
—By CNBC's Jeff Cox. Follow him on Twitter at @JeffCoxCNBCcom.
...you are a product of your environment, your environment is a product of your priorities, your priorities are a product of you......
The replacement of morality and conscience with law produces a deadly paradox.
STOP BEING GOOD DEMOCRATS---STOP BEING GOOD REPUBLICANS--START BEING GOOD AMERICANS
Market Braces for a Blah Jobs Report as Firms Hold Back Text Size
Published: Thursday, 31 Jan 2013 | 6:52 PM ET By: Patti Domm CNBC Executive News Editor
Applicants wait to meet potential employers at a Manhattan job fair in New York City. Even if hiring improved last month, January's jobs report Friday should paint a picture of employers who remain hesitant to add to their ranks in a sluggish and uncertain economy.
Economists expect 160,000 non-farm payrolls were added in January and the unemployment rate stayed unchanged at 7.8 percent, according to Thomson Reuters. That would be just a tiny improvement over the 155,000 jobs added in December.
"We set a decent pace of hiring, roughly 150,000 a month for two years now," said Stephen Stanley, chief economist at Pierpont Securities."It's not like were declining or flat-lining. We are creating jobs, but it's not what you expect in a recovery. We haven't had that burst of hiring. We've switched from recession to a mature level of expansion."
Unseasonably warm weather early in the month may have added slightly to the ranks of construction workers, and there may have been additional hiring in manufacturing. "We would have expected the service sector to add the bulk of jobs with modest gains in manufacturing and construction," said Dean Maki, chief U.S. economist at Barclays. He expects 150,000 nonfarm payrolls, and 155,000 if the public sector layoffs were not included.
Besides the 8:30 a.m. ET jobs report, other data Friday include consumer sentiment at 9:55 a.m., and ISM manufacturing and construction spending at 10 a.m. Monthly auto sales are also expected.
The January jobs report comes on the heels of a stunning report of a 0.1-percent contraction in fourth-quarter GDP, the first decline since second quarter 2009. That decline came largely from a big drop in defense expenditures and a decline in inventories. It's unclear how those numbers will show up in employment.
"I wouldn't expect the downside surprise on GDP to have a near-term impact on payroll growth…It's possible, but it's not clear whether the lesser spending will show up immediately as job cuts. It may again be fewer things ordered and eventually that does affect the defense contractors and how many people they employ," Maki said. "Usually they don't lay off government employees quickly when spending gets cut."
Economists said the decline in inventories could actually help hiring in the future because workers will be needed to help rebuild inventories.
(Read More: Industries That Hired the Most in 2012)
There have been some signs that hiring improved slightly in January. The ADP payroll report showed a gain of 192,000 private-sector jobs in January, and the four-week average forunemployment claims, at 352,000, is at a four-year low. Small business hiring may have also made slight gains.
Of the 192,000 jobs, ADP said 115,000 workers were added to small businesses with fewer than 50 employees, and the rest were added to medium-sized businesses. Large companies, with 500 or more workers, actually trimmed 2,000 jobs. According to the National Federation of Independent Businesses, its small business members increased hiring at the best level since April 2012, but the gain is still small. The NFIB said the average change in employment per firm increased to 0.09 from 0.03 workers.Transportation, professional services, finance insurance and real estate were the only sectors reporting gains.
Seasonal factors make January one of the more difficult months to read, but some of those factors may have actually added to the jobs number, said Diane Swonk, chief economist at Mesirow Financial. Her expectations is for 190,000 jobs, and she says earlier than usual holiday-related layoffs in retail may have helped the number. Those workers left the workforce in December as consumers pulled back on holiday spending in December ahead of the "fiscal cliff."
She expects to see additional jobs in construction, with some warm weather effect on hiring early for several weeks, before the onset of more seasonal weather at the end of January. Housing may have also been responsible for jobs on another front. "They're gearing up in the financial services industry to do mortgages again. They're hiring again," Swonk said.
(Read More: Plan on Working Past Age 65? You'll Have Company)
Hurricane Sandy may also have been behind some additional workers in the northeast, particularly in construction.
Stephen Stanley, chief economist at Pierpont Securities,expects to see a pickup in temporary hiring, and that should continue as the year goes on. But he does not expect the pace of overall hiring to pick up anytime soon. His January forecast is for 170,000 jobs and unemployment rate of 7.8 percent
"What you're going to see is a lot of companies that are cautious and hesitant. Where they might ordinarily have hired people permanently, they might go to contract workers as a way to hedge their bets. As we get closer to the end of the year, people are looking at the mandates associated with health-care reform," he said.
Not only are employers worried about health care, but he said they remain concerned about taxes and regulation. The fiscal cliff concerns have now given way to a focus on the "sequester," automatic spending cuts that take place March 1 if Congress does not act. Half of the cuts would be in defense.
"It feels to me like the government is a pretty big dampener on growth right now," said Stanley.
Stanley, like many economists, dismissed the fourth-quarter GDP number as a one-off, but he added some growth into his first-quarter estimate, taking it to 3 percent. "There's not a lot of substance there.There's a lot of statistical fluff," he said.
Economist also expect to see benchmark revisions of about 30,000 additional jobs added to payrolls each month from April 2011 to March 2012. That revision is expected but it could affect how the report is received by the market — especially if it were paired with an upside surprise in the January number, Maki said.
...you are a product of your environment, your environment is a product of your priorities, your priorities are a product of you......
The replacement of morality and conscience with law produces a deadly paradox.
STOP BEING GOOD DEMOCRATS---STOP BEING GOOD REPUBLICANS--START BEING GOOD AMERICANS
"In the beginning of a change, the Patriot is a scarce man, brave, hated and scorned. When his cause succeeds, however, the timid join him, for then it costs nothing to be a Patriot."
Company Retirement Plans are disappearing from America... If you want them back... then look back to find out how they arrived in the first place... Unionize... Join a Union... Vote Union!
The modern conservative is engaged in one of man's oldest exercises in moral philosophy; that is, the search for a superior moral justification for selfishness. John Kenneth Galbraith
Logged
