The latest CNN/ORC poll released today shows a wider lead for President Obama than the previous CNN/ORC poll but it is doubly skewed. It massively under-samples independents while it also over-samples Democratic voters. The CNN/Opinion Research Corp. poll official reports Obama at 52 to percent and Mitt Romney at 46 percent. Unskewed, the data reveals a 53 percent to 45 percent lead for Romney.
This new CNN/ORC survey, unlike many other analyzed, not only over-samples Democratic voters, but also massively under-samples independent voters, to produce a result more favorable to Barack Obama. This survey's sample includes 397 registered Republicans and 441 registered Democrats. But the survey included a total of 822 registered voters, leaving only 37 independent voters at most. The survey clearly under-sampled independent and Republican voters.
Among the Democrats survey, 97 percent favored Obama while three percent support Romney. The Republicans surveys chose Romney by a 96 percent to two percent margin. Those margins display a high degree of party loyalty in each party for its candidate, which is plausible in a campaign like this one where both sides are focusing heavily on boosting turnout among their base. Independents, who are massively under-sampled in this survey, support Romney by a 54 percent to 40 percent margin.
IMO, if the numbers were really important to me, I'd kick out the highest and the lowest polls, then average the rest to get a more accurate picture of the entire electorate.
The modern conservative is engaged in one of man's oldest exercises in moral philosophy; that is, the search for a superior moral justification for selfishness. John Kenneth Galbraith
President Obama and Democrats have scaled back resources in states where Mitt Romney and his backers aren't advertising, "suggesting both sides have settled on the same nine states, which have a combined 110 electoral votes," Bloomberg reports.
"In this environment, Obama could secure re-election just by winning Florida and one of the remaining eight battleground states. That's because the president is favored to win the 207 electoral votes from states that he carried four years ago by at least 15 percentage points. Michigan is among those. He also has the edge in Minnesota, which has 10 votes, and Pennsylvania, which has 20. That would bring Obama to 237 electoral votes."
"Romney's path is more difficult. His smaller base of 191 electoral votes includes states that the president lost in 2008 plus Indiana, where polls show Romney is favored to defeat Obama four years after the president carried the state by 1 percentage point. Republicans need to win 72 percent of the electoral votes in the nine targeted states, which would require victories in five to eight of them. Florida and Ohio are the biggest prizes; it's been 88 years since a Republican was elected president without winning Florida, and no Republican has ever won without Ohio."
The modern conservative is engaged in one of man's oldest exercises in moral philosophy; that is, the search for a superior moral justification for selfishness. John Kenneth Galbraith
In Latest Poll, Americans Know Who To Blame For Poor Economy
"According to a new CNN poll released Thursday, Americans see little improvement in the economy, and they know just who to blame. ~ 63% of registered voters think they are no better off ~ 19% or are worse off ~ 44% than they were four years ago; ~ 68% say the state of the economy is poor to very poor. But if that sounds like bad news for the current administration, keep reading.
“Since President Barack Obama’s first year in office, a majority of Americans have said that former President Bush’s policies were more responsible for current economic problems than Obama’s policies were.” The current poll shows that 57% still hold that opinion. The only groups in the poll whose majorities didn’t support this view were Republicans and conservatives.
The modern conservative is engaged in one of man's oldest exercises in moral philosophy; that is, the search for a superior moral justification for selfishness. John Kenneth Galbraith
In Latest Poll, Americans Know Who To Blame For Poor Economy
"According to a new CNN poll released Thursday, Americans see little improvement in the economy, and they know just who to blame. ~ 63% of registered voters think they are no better off ~ 19% or are worse off ~ 44% than they were four years ago; ~ 68% say the state of the economy is poor to very poor. But if that sounds like bad news for the current administration, keep reading.
“Since President Barack Obama’s first year in office, a majority of Americans have said that former President Bush’s policies were more responsible for current economic problems than Obama’s policies were.” The current poll shows that 57% still hold that opinion. The only groups in the poll whose majorities didn’t support this view were Republicans and conservatives.
Also, in the story... "The CNN poll was conducted by ORC International from September 7-9 (entirely after last week's Democratic National Convention), with 875 registered voters questioned by telephone. The survey's sampling error is plus or minus 3.5 percentage points."
Geez, 4 straight days of blaming the previous president did nothing to sway this poll, right?
What are the Dems going to say in 2016, when the economy is still moving like a snail and the deficit tops 20 trillion?
"Arguing with liberals is like playing chess with a pigeon; no matter how good I am at chess, the pigeon is just going to knock out the pieces, crap on the board, and strut around like it is victorious." - Author Unknown
a majority of Americans have said that former President Bush’s policies were more responsible for current economic problems than Obama’s policies were.
For the sake of argument, say you're right. Whatever Obummer's plan is to FIX it and move forward, isn't working either.
The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll for Friday shows Mitt Romney attracting support from 48% of voters nationwide, while President Obama earns 45% of the vote. Two percent (2%) prefer some other candidate, and five percent (5%) are undecided. See daily tracking history.
The recent numbers may have been impacted by a number of factors. Clearly, one is the fading of the president’s convention bounce. Last week, Scott Rasmussen anticipated this fade by noting that the conventions would have no lasting impact on the race.
Additionally, last week’s jobs report was disappointing. However, consumer confidence did not fall in the wake of that report. That may be due to the fact that the poor results were no surprise to consumers. Confidence also may have been impacted by the Fed decision to provide additional stimulus. That decision boosted both the stock market and investor confidence. Nearly half of all consumers are also investors.
Finally, it is way too early to evaluate the political impact, if any, from recent events in the Middle East. Today’s tracking data shows that despite the extensive news coverage of Arab attacks on U.S. embassies, only six percent (6%) of voters consider national security issues the most important during this election cycle. That’s little changed from five percent (5%) before the attacks began. Additionally, voters currently trust the president more than Romney on national security issues by a narrow 46% to 43% margin. That, too, is little changed following recent events.
In Ohio Obama leads by a point. In Florida, the president is up two. Romney has edged back into the lead in Missouri and now earns 51% of the vote in North Carolina.
The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll for Friday shows Mitt Romney attracting support from 48% of voters nationwide, while President Obama earns 45% of the vote. Two percent (2%) prefer some other candidate, and five percent (5%) are undecided. See daily tracking history.
Every election cycle has its winners and losers: not just the among the candidates, but also the pollsters.
On Tuesday, polls conducted by the firm Rasmussen Reports — which released more than 100 surveys in the final three weeks of the campaign, including some commissioned under a subsidiary on behalf of Fox News — badly missed the margin in many states, and also exhibited a considerable bias toward Republican candidates. (The NY Times) http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.n.....-performed-strongly/
The modern conservative is engaged in one of man's oldest exercises in moral philosophy; that is, the search for a superior moral justification for selfishness. John Kenneth Galbraith
Ah, so it's better to get polling results from CNN - they're not weighted or biased in any way. Gotcha.
Quoted Text
The latest CNN/ORC poll released today shows a wider lead for President Obama than the previous CNN/ORC poll but it is doubly skewed. It massively under-samples independents while it also over-samples Democratic voters. The CNN/Opinion Research Corp. poll official reports Obama at 52 to percent and Mitt Romney at 46 percent. Unskewed, the data reveals a 53 percent to 45 percent lead for Romney.
They rate the pollsters... This is how they do it:
(After a couple of weeks, when results in all races have been certified, we’ll update our official pollster ratings, which use a more advanced process that attempts to account, for instance, for the degree of difficulty in polling different types of races.)
The 105 polls released in Senate and gubernatorial races by Rasmussen Reports and its subsidiary, Pulse Opinion Research, missed the final margin between the candidates by 5.8 points, a considerably higher figure than that achieved by most other pollsters. Some 13 of its polls missed by 10 or more points, including one in the Hawaii Senate race that missed the final margin between the candidates by 40 points, the largest error ever recorded in a general election in FiveThirtyEight’s database, which includes all polls conducted since 1998.
Moreover, Rasmussen’s polls were quite biased, overestimating the standing of the Republican candidate by almost 4 points on average. In just 12 cases, Rasmussen’s polls overestimated the margin for the Democrat by 3 or more points. But it did so for the Republican candidate in 55 cases — that is, in more than half of the polls that it issued.
Some of the criticisms have focused on the fact that Mr. Rasmussen is himself a conservative — the same direction in which his polls have generally leaned — although he identifies as an independent rather than Republican. In our view, that is somewhat beside the point. What matters, rather, is that the methodological shortcuts that the firm takes may now be causing it to pay a price in terms of the reliability of its polling.
The modern conservative is engaged in one of man's oldest exercises in moral philosophy; that is, the search for a superior moral justification for selfishness. John Kenneth Galbraith
NONE OF THE POLLS ARE ACCURATE!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
They are generated and paid for by the lame stream media!!!!!!!!
why is everyone wasting their time on such nonsense?????
When the INSANE are running the ASYLUM In individuals, insanity is rare; but in groups, parties, nations and epochs, it is the rule. -- Friedrich Nietzsche
“How fortunate for those in power that people never think.” Adolph Hitler
NONE OF THE POLLS ARE ACCURATE!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! They are generated and paid for by the lame stream media!!!!!!!! why is everyone wasting their time on such nonsense?????
If none are accurate, and they are all a waste of time... why do you bother even reading the posts about them??? Just ignore them.
The modern conservative is engaged in one of man's oldest exercises in moral philosophy; that is, the search for a superior moral justification for selfishness. John Kenneth Galbraith
Poll Finds Americans Split on Polls A new Washington Post-ABC News poll finds 46% of Americans hold favorable views of polls in general, and 47% have negative ones.
The modern conservative is engaged in one of man's oldest exercises in moral philosophy; that is, the search for a superior moral justification for selfishness. John Kenneth Galbraith
A new Pew Research survey finds President Obama now leads Mitt Romney nationally by eight points among likely voters, 51% to 43%.
"Not only does Obama enjoy a substantial lead in the horserace, he tops Romney on a number of key dimensions. His support is stronger than his rival's, and is positive rather than negative. Mitt Romney's backers are more ardent than they were pre-convention, but are still not as enthusiastic as Obama's. Roughly half of Romney's supporters say they are voting against Obama rather than for the Republican nominee."
The modern conservative is engaged in one of man's oldest exercises in moral philosophy; that is, the search for a superior moral justification for selfishness. John Kenneth Galbraith
A new Reuters/Ipsos poll finds that 43% of voters viewed Mitt Romney less favorably after an excerpt of the now famous hidden camera video was shown to them online. In addition, 59% said they felt Romney unfairly dismissed almost half of Americans as victims.
A Gallup poll also finds Americans had a more negative than positive immediate reaction Romney's comments with 36% saying they make them less likely to vote for him, 20% saying the remarks make them more likely to vote for him, and 43% say the comments won't make a difference.
The modern conservative is engaged in one of man's oldest exercises in moral philosophy; that is, the search for a superior moral justification for selfishness. John Kenneth Galbraith
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